Juniper is already widely acknowledged as a leading provider of advice on market trends and technology risk.  Analysis of key risk factors and modelling sensitivities are key parts of this service for due diligence clients – many of whom now require more rigorous modelling of a project’s risk profile, given the current financial climate.

We are pleased to announce that, from January 2009, Juniper will be offering our clients quantitative multi-dimensional modelling of risk using probability mapping and regression analysis.  This service will be provided in conjunction with our partners Synexus who have used such techniques in hazard assessment and process design within the petrochemical and related industries.

Quantitative assessment of project risk depends critically upon the underlying assumptions that are used.  In delivering this type of analysis we will draw upon:

• Juniper’s 18 year knowledge of key variables within the waste management and biomass renewables sectors
• Synexus’ process engineering knowledge and associated databases
• Juniper’s benchmarking capabilities and knowledge of reference plant performance

Synexus’ proprietary models will then be used, on a client-specific basis, to derive a spatial probability assessment of risk. 
This technique uses regression analysis to determine a suite of risk based volumes that provide a graphical illustration of a project’s sensitivity (between downside risk and upside potential).

Such an approach will provide investors, funders and insurers with a more quantitative assessment of a project’s risk profile and will also help corporate sponsors to identify key risk factors and assess the effectiveness of measures that could be used to mitigate those risks.

For enquiries relating to potential projects, please contact Joe Schwager at Juniper on +44 1452 770078 or schwager@juniper.co.uk

15 January 2009